Whitepaper
·
11 min read
Better data,
better decisions.
A decision can only be as good as the data under it. This paper sets out the empirical case, from peer-reviewed and independent research, that richer, verified, higher-quality data measurably improves predictive accuracy and lending outcomes, and states the caveats in full.
Inside this whitepaper
Decision quality is bounded by data quality
Noise and blind spots both produce a decision that looks precise and isn’t.
Better data is independently predictive
Berg et al.: simple alternative data adds 5.3 points of AUC over the bureau score alone.
Richer data and better models
FinRegLab: more approvals and fewer approved defaulters at the same risk cut-off.
The honest reading
The caveats stated in full, external validity, fair-lending risk, and what AUC does and doesn’t tell you.
What the evidence shows
+5.3pp
AUC gain from adding alternative data
+0.020
ROC-AUC lift: cash-flow data & ML
~4%
More approvals, with ≥9% fewer defaulters
1 in 3
UK adults underserved by poor credit data
Written by
Shaun Adams
CTO, Credit Canary · June 2026
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